A Magnetic Reversal Around 2040?
The fitted solution lands near 2040. Monte Carlo simulations show how sensitive that date is to where the reversal is, how fast it’s moving, and how thick the sheet is.
We Fixed the Geometry of the Galactic Current Sheet
Ben Davidson caught two assumptions in my model that were wrong. I rebuilt the surface, refit the observations, and the result moved the modeled magnetic reversal much closer to the Sun.
We’re Getting Very Close to the Original Ocean Question
This project started with one question: can electromagnetic induction heat the deep ocean enough to matter? The solver is finally approaching the point where I can actually test it.
I’m Trying to Predict the Next Galactic Current Sheet Crossing
If Galactic Current Sheet crossings drive a repeating solar cycle, we should be able to model the sheet independently and predict intersections before looking at catastrophe dates.
From the Auroral Electrojet to the Deep Ocean
I finally isolated the instability in my EM solver, and a clue from Ben Davidson is changing the next physical test.
The Last Instability Before the Real Space Weather Experiment
The ocean model is in, SWARM forcing is in, depth resolved heating works. Now I just have one stubborn numerical problem left.
From Space Weather to the Abyssal Ocean: Where My EM Solver Is Now
The solver can now take a changing magnetic field, propagate the electromagnetic response through a realistic ocean and solid Earth, and calculate the resulting Joule heating. Now I’m working on where that heat actually goes.
The Coastline Broke My Electromagnetic Solver, So I Rebuilt It
The total energy looked stable, but the detailed heating pattern refused to settle down. I’m now testing a global Maxwell system with more than a million unknowns, and we’re finally getting close to the actual experiment!
I Built a 3D Electromagnetic Ocean
The solver has been fighting me so hard around coastlines and the seafloor. The Maxwell physics itself still looks good. The problem is the sharp boundaries. I think I’ve finally got the right fix though...
Two of the Three Geothermal Heat Maps Are Going the Wrong Way
I’m tracing three different geothermal heat maps through 20 years of ocean circulation to see whether heat from the seafloor can explain the accelerating warming of the abyssal ocean. Two of the three sources are now moving in the opposite direction from what the hypothesis requires, and the final hydrothermal test is running now.
We Know the Seafloor Is Releasing Heat. Now I’m Testing Where It Goes.
We already know there’s a lot of heat coming through the seafloor. But, that by itself doesn’t really tell me much. I need to know where the ocean actually takes it. So I’m running three different geothermal heat maps through the ocean and tracing that heat as it moves, especially down into the abyssal layers.
The Abyssal Warming Just Gave Us a Treasure Map
I couldn’t match the abyssal warming acceleration pattern to known geothermal and hydrothermal features, but our dataset is extremely sparse. So, I worked backwards starting at the pattern to find where the geothermal and hydrothermal features would have to be and how strong they would have to be.
Can Heat From Below Explain the Abyssal Warming Acceleration?
A constant heat source can cause warming, but an acceleration needs either a changing source or changing heat delivery. Most of the direct geothermal fingerprints are weak, so I’m down to the circulation question.
Antarctic Bottom Water doesn’t fully explain the deep ocean warming acceleration
Antarctic Bottom Water initially looked like a really good match to the abyssal warming signal. Then, I calculated how much acceleration the overturning circulation can actually supply…
I Finally Got the Ocean Into the Solver
For the real SWARM forcing I’m testing here, I get about 56.0% of the dissipated power in the ocean and 44.0% in the solid Earth.
If the Heat Is Coming From Above, Why Is the Abyss Most Affected?
The deepest layer has the most widespread warming signal, making a simple "top-down" heating story harder to explain.
Could the Deep Ocean Be Warming Because Its Layers Are Moving?
When I followed deep ocean density layers instead of fixed depth, the stable part of the record matched the observed abyssal warming surprisingly well. Then, we ran out of data.
The Abyss Is Warming and It’s not Adiabatic Compression
The ocean warming acceleration is not explained by adiabatic compression.
I’m Building a Solver to Follow Electromagnetic Energy Through Earth
I’m building a model that follows electromagnetic energy from a changing magnetic field, through the ocean, and into the solid Earth. We’ve just validated the core physics behind the ocean–Earth coupling.